Friday Night Lights...I mean, Bets.

So here's the breakdown -

1) UNC/Nova over on 3pters (14.5) - I could go either way. UNC has allowed both Oakland and Iowa St. to hit their averages on 3pters made (Oakland - 6; Iowa St - 4). On the other hand, Nova has been WAY below their three point average in the tourney. They average 7, but have hit 3 and 4 in the past two games. If you just add up the UNC/Nova averages, it comes out to exactly 14.5. So with Sumpter out, you'd expect Nova to try more outside shooting. I'd put this one as a 2rd or 3th bet.

2) Daniel Ewing over on points/assists (20.5) - For some reason, I like this bet. For D-Ew to hit his points, they must allow him to take the 3's. He went 2-4 and 4-7 in the tourney from behind the arc. Michigan St. has allowed 7-3pters in each tourney game. Last time these teams met, Daniel went off for 29 points, 5-7 from behind the arc. Daniel's tourney averages are 17 pts, 3 assists. When he scores above 17pts, expect around 3 to 4 assists, as he isn't dishing it to JJ or Shelden. I'd put this as our 1st bet.

3) Evtimov over on points/rebounds (16.5) - I can see two sides to this bet. 1) Evtimov is the D-Ew of NCST. He's gotta hit his 3pters to score big. He averages 9.9 points this season, 11.5 tourney. Wisconsin does not give up the three point shot (tourney average - 0.281). In other slog-type games, Evtimov has been horrid (0pts, vs St. John; 3pts, vs VaTech; 3pts, vs UVA). Wisconsin also plays inside for the most part, meaning lots of close in rebounds. Evtimov won't get to those. 2) Evtimov is the glue to the NCST team, which is playing unreasonably well as of late. He's averaging 13.5 points, 4.3 rebounds over the last 10 games - those same games where NCST started to come into its own. Wisconsin may key on Hodge and leave Evtimov open. This is actually what they did against Bucknell (leading scorer Bettencourt - 3pts, second leading scorer - 22pts). I don't like this bet just because it's against Wisconsin, who totally fouls up opposing offenses. I'd take this bet 3rd or 4th.

5) NCST (-2) over Wisconsin - Wisconsin slogs the game down and you don't really know what type of offense is going to come out of NCST. This game is just a mystery because I can either team winning and winning ugly. I don't think the points will matter here, so if we were to take something, I'd go straight up. I just want to stay as far away from this game as possible. Last bet, only if we had a gun to our heads.

So here's the ranks:

1) Daniel over 20.5 points/assists (take it)
2) UNC/Nova over 14.5 3pters (take it)
3) Some over total points (I likey the buckets)
4) Evtimov over 16.5 points/rebounds (don't take it)
5) NCST (-2) to win (don't take it)