March Madness Pool - What it says about us.

Alright, here's my first post. Let's see how it goes.

So I've been running the Duke Graduate School March Madness Basketball Pool for two years now and I have to say its been great. Walls covered with printed out brackets. Up to the minute score updates. Tiny 13 inch TVs stuffed away in the back of a lab just to catch the first few minutes of a game before I go and watch with the boys (and girls, this year).

Now, I'm a scientist - both at once the most painful and most joyful job in the world. I've been taught to be critical of whatever I observe. On the other hand, I'm a college basketball fanatic. Especially in March, if you take every game critically, your head explodes. Or one of you buddies goes, "Fuck you, Moose. I'm putting 10 bones on New Mexico." This is what I have to deal with during the Fourventeenth.

So in order to meld the scientist and fanatic in me, let's just look at the Pool and see what it has to say about the scientist and fanatic in us all. 174 brackets each handed in by 174 Duke Bio-Sci grad students (give or take a few sig. others):

1) People are lucky f*#@^ - I deem Zach Schafer the Leprechaun. He's riding his rainbow of green clovers and purple horseshoes all the way to number 1. A total of 4 people picked over 24 upsets - 3 are ranked 100th or lower. Zach is ranked #1. Now before you counter that his picks must have been calculated let me show you his upsets in the first round: UW-Mil, LSU, Pitt, GW, Iowa St, NCST, Miss St, Vermont, UTEP. Not so bad you say? Second Round: UW-Mil, LSU, Pitt, WV, NCST, Vermont. When you pick all the possible upsets to go two rounds, you're gonna get a few right. As of now, there is VERY little chance he winds up in first place, but he should feel great about his picks while he can. Heart wins.

2) Everyone loves the underdog - No, not the bad Hong Kong Fuey cartoon knockoff which made a comeback in the HORRID new superhero Capitol One commercial (it's sad that I know both Capitol One and Hong Kong Feuy - at least its not bacon cheddar ranch). The average number of upsets picked per bracket was 14.6 out of 48 games. The number of upsets CORRECTLY picked per bracket was 4.2! Now in your best Jon Stewart voice - Whaaaaa?!? People pick on average 10 more upsets than they get right. Heart wins.

3) Everyone roots for their Alma Mater... - Even when they know they shouldn't. Take ESPN's Pool. Out of the top 50 brackets this year, a total of THREE picked Duke to win - 6%. Duke Bio-Sci Pool? 40 of 174 - 23%. Do twenty three percent of Duke scientists really think Duke is going to win it all? Heart wins.

4) ...But knows they are going to lose - 0 (1st), 4 (2st), 33 (SS), 31 (EE), 40 (FF), 25 (Finals). These are the numbers of people who think Duke will LOSE in each round. Good luck for Duke on Friday - there was a huge spike in "Duke Losers" picking that round. Again, another spike in the Final Four - mostly against a UNC powerhouse. If they get to the finals, more people think that Duke will win than lose (again, see #3). Even though more people think Duke will win, most people can see past blind fandom. Head wins.

Conclusions - the science of pool picking goes out the window when making your brackets. Even though I try a more scientific approach to brackets (which usually does me well in March and April - BTW, thanks for the 90 bucks last year, Kid), its a win-win situation. Mind wins, brackets win, cash money in the pockets. Heart wins, brackets lose, Duke has another banner in Cameron. That may be more sweet than the $340 for this year's pot.

Yeah, it is. Heart wins.