Thought on a side bet...

Since Mullet wants to go big in the betting, I was thinking about one bet which I like.

Remember Alando Tucker? The Wisconsin swingman who made me look really really good when he hit 25 against UNC when the over was 16 points? I was reading the ESPN article on Alford's take on the final four games. He's comparing Alando Tucker with Alan Anderson for Michigan State. They are both senior swingmen who are their team's leading scorer (actually, Anderson is second on Mich St. by 0.1 points per game) who can rebound. Lets look at the stats

Tucker - Minutes per game: 31.7, Points Avg: 15.2, Rebounds: 6.1
Anderson - Minutes per game: 26.8, Points Avg: 13.7, Rebounds: 5.6

Against UNC:

Tucker - Minutes: 33, Points: 25, Rebounds: 2
Anderson - ???

Now what about how Anderson plays in the Mich St offense this tourney? Against the tough competition? He's increased his minutes every game (Avg: 30 min) and is averaging 14 points and 7 rebounds. He swamped Duke with 17 and 8 - UNC is nowhere near the defensive team Duke is.

Same reasoning goes: Michigan State is going to be forced to play outside and a swingman who can hit the mid-range jumper is going to get alot of points. With his increased minutes in the tourney and his FT shooting percentage (87.7%), he'll get his chances.

What's the bet, you ask? Over Points + Rebounds (21).

I'd take that bet.